Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 217.623582 265.506086 325.198002 406.503987 516.660983 6.642435e+02 8.833095e+02
2025-06-01 156.864993 208.502735 281.018534 394.582307 576.683254 8.749612e+02 1.445061e+03
2025-06-08 123.903623 174.038207 250.216408 381.729897 620.812482 1.081306e+03 2.185640e+03
2025-06-15 112.201164 165.901726 253.843089 421.088994 767.923916 1.570193e+03 4.134063e+03
2025-06-22 98.211000 150.492259 240.772641 425.129479 848.426262 1.988414e+03 6.757871e+03
2025-06-29 88.985593 140.841783 234.868771 440.297425 962.080887 2.613139e+03 1.217090e+04
2025-07-06 79.503219 128.901658 221.830196 435.760380 1025.128172 3.166612e+03 2.023861e+04
2025-07-13 76.281989 127.605521 228.940632 479.296495 1252.594507 4.717443e+03 5.439095e+04
2025-07-20 72.850938 125.248051 233.244655 517.873193 1499.044303 6.978748e+03 1.861022e+05
2025-07-27 69.069181 121.546102 233.788103 547.028259 1742.385413 1.009529e+04 9.694272e+05
2025-08-03 65.022867 116.673547 230.655584 564.872672 1962.494301 1.415080e+04 1.474593e+07
2025-08-10 60.798819 110.833008 224.114650 570.304652 2137.605496 1.900610e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 55.983983 103.362540 212.883620 559.185280 2236.450114 2.416584e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 51.424059 95.933343 200.589881 541.020638 2287.634954 2.961199e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 47.382766 89.187861 188.947796 521.610826 2318.899064 3.574656e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 46.876834 90.288858 197.930172 581.269189 2969.647949 8.005788e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 44.423461 86.609051 193.368161 587.437838 3251.066927 1.288571e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 42.737338 84.527995 192.894812 610.668797 3739.998250 2.656237e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 40.313788 80.420607 185.951612 603.708017 3942.432259 4.369324e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 40.047129 81.508644 194.435338 670.911095 5156.626772 2.805063e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 39.468485 81.750736 200.473653 731.201800 6587.100186 1.100611e+08 NaN
2025-10-19 38.533275 80.975647 203.209024 777.213483 8092.090252 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 37.290500 79.265338 202.621500 805.559260 9501.676957 NaN NaN